SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:If WNBA playoffs started now, who would Caitlin Clark and Fever face?

The SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank CenterWNBA playoffs are rapidly approaching, with just two days of regular-season games left. Teams seeded Nos. 1-4 will host the first round, but just how those teams settle in the standings is still up in the air. There are a few huge games left, including Tuesday’s Minnesota-Connecticut showdown. Also on Tuesday, Chicago visits Atlanta, with those two teams, plus the Washington Mystics, scrapping for the eighth and final playoff spot. 

Even New York, currently No. 1 in the standings, could drop down, though the Liberty would have to lose to a couple teams (Washington and Atlanta) they should be able to handle. 

There’s a lot still to be determined. But on Sunday, behind another record-breaking performance from Caitlin Clark — she scored a career-high and set a single-season scoring record for WNBA rookies — the Indiana Fever clinched the sixth seed in the playoffs. Here, we take a look at Clark and Indiana’s likely playoff opponent. 

WNBA playoff format

In the WNBA’s playoff format, the sixth seed matches up with the third seed in the first round. All first-round matchups are best-of-three series, with the first two games being played at the home of the higher-seeded team; Game 3, if necessary, is played at the home of the lower-seeded team. 

This format means that lower-seeded playoff teams may not see the huge financial benefit from hosting a postseason game and, if they manage to steal a game on the road, it puts the higher-seeded team in the tough position of winning Game 3 in a hostile environment. 

If the playoffs started right now, No. 6 Indiana would be visiting … No. 3 Connecticut. 

An important caveat: The No. 3 seed is not set yet so depending on what happens Tuesday and Thursday, things could shuffle. Minnesota (29-9), Connecticut (27-11) and Las Vegas (25-13) are all two games apart in the standings, so crazy stuff could still happen. The Sun wrap up the 2024 regular season by hosting Minnesota and Chicago.

But for argument’s sake, let’s assume it’s going to be Connecticut vs. Indiana in the first round. 

How has Caitlin Clark played vs. the Connecticut Sun this season? 

The Sun and Fever have met four times this year, with Connecticut holding a 3-1 edge. Here’s how Clark played in each of those games:

∎May 14: Connecticut 92, Indiana 71 

Clark stat line: 20 points (5-of-15 shooting, including 4-of-11 from 3), 3 assists, 2 steals, 10 turnovers

∎May 20: Connecticut 88, Indiana 84

Clark stat line: 17 points (5-of-11 shooting, including 3-of-7 from 3), 3 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 blocks, 5 turnovers

∎June 10: Connecticut 89, Indiana 72

Clark stat line: 10 points (3-of-8 shooting, including 2-of-5 from 3), 2 assists, 1 steal, 3 turnovers

∎Aug. 28: Indiana 84, Connecticut 80

Clark stat line: 19 points (7-of-17 shooting, including 3-of-12 from 3), 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 7 turnovers

It’s worth pointing out that Indiana’s lone win over Connecticut this season came after the Olympic break, which has hugely benefited Clark and the Fever overall. Indiana has been one of the better teams since the WNBA resumed play in August, amassing a 9-4 record; Las Vegas is the only team Indiana did not beat this season. 

Caitlin Clark vs. DiJonai Carrington

In the playoffs, just like the regular season, Clark is likely to be guarded by Connecticut’s DiJonai Carrington, one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Just 5-foot-11, Carrington is a superior athlete — it runs in the family, as her brother played eight seasons in the NFL — with long arms and quick feet who loves physical play. She and Clark have developed something of a rivalry this season, as Carrington has repeatedly complained to officials about Clark’s whining about foul calls.

Regardless, it’s clear Carrington knows how to defend Clark, as the favorite to win Rookie of the Year has averaged just 39% (20-of-51) shooting vs. the Sun in four matchups, and shot just 34% (12-of-35) from 3. Also, while Carrington has downplayed their individual matchup, it’s obvious Carrington takes pride in frustrating whoever she’s guarding and pressuring them into mistakes and rushed shots. 

The Sun boast the best defensive rating in the league and have a bunch of players with long wingspans who can harass Clark and Indiana’s other guards. If Carrington isn’t guarding Clark it’ll probably be either DeWanna Bonner or Alyssa Thomas, two veterans who also love to make life tough for opposing guards. 

Bottom line: Indiana has been playing great since the Olympic break, especially with the increased production from off guards Kelsey Mitchell and Lexie Hull. But the Fever have their work cut out for them. 

Email Lindsay Schnell at [email protected] and follow her on social media @Lindsay_Schnell